What Was Known: Weather Forecast Availability and Communication in Conflict-Affected Countries

25 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2022

See all articles by Catalina Jaime

Catalina Jaime

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Erin Coughlan de Perez

Tufts University

Maarten van Aalst

University of Twente

Emmanuel Raju

affiliation not provided to SSRN

alex sheaffer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

Armed conflict increases people’s vulnerability to climate extremes, and it is a key driver of climate risks. Since many of these climate extremes are predictable beforehand, Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) can help protect people’s lives, livelihoods, and wellbeing. While such EWEA systems exist in several countries, there is limited existing scientific knowledge about EWEA in conflict-affected countries that have communities experiencing the compounding effects of both disaster and conflict risks. By doing a retrospective analysis of the most severe disaster events and historical forecast information, this paper examines whether global forecast models predicted historical floods in conflict-affected regions and whether forecast information was communicated for droughts . It analyses the historical forecast availability and communication for the most severe disaster events in 20 countries affected by protracted conflict over the last 20 years. These 72 disaster events were reported to affect approximately 150 million individuals and more than 150,000 were reported dead. The results show that 48 out of 50 major flood events in these regions were predicted before they occurred, with lead times of more than 3 days and probabilities between 10 to 90 percent. In addition, in 16 out of 20 major drought events, a low rainfall forecast was communicated in advance of the disaster declaration. We conclude that forecasts exist and could be used to provide early warnings in conflict-affected areas. Further research is needed as to what extent forecast warnings did lead to early action to protect populations affected by conflict.

Keywords: Forecast, early warning early action, anticipatory action, climate, armed conflict, conflict, Disaster Risk Reduction

Suggested Citation

Jaime, Catalina and Coughlan de Perez, Erin and van Aalst, Maarten and Raju, Emmanuel and sheaffer, alex, What Was Known: Weather Forecast Availability and Communication in Conflict-Affected Countries. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4047542 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4047542

Catalina Jaime (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Erin Coughlan de Perez

Tufts University ( email )

Maarten Van Aalst

University of Twente ( email )

Postbus 217
Twente
Netherlands

Emmanuel Raju

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Alex Sheaffer

affiliation not provided to SSRN

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