The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of property prices and their interaction with output growth in a general equilibrium model. Closed form solutions and testable hypotheses are derived from a mildly restricted version of the model. The testable hypotheses are broadly supported empirically. In particular, (1) the volatility of commercial property price is higher than that of residential property price, (2) each of lagged, contemporary, and forward commercial property price is positively correlated with residential property price, (3) the contemporaneous covariance between the two property prices is larger than the lagged covariance, and (4) output growth is positively correlated with both property prices. These results are consistent with simulations results that are based on a more general specification of the model.

Keywords: property price dynamics, comovements, commercial and residential property

JEL Classification: E30, R31, R32