Rally Around Which Flag?: Investigation of the Impact of Sanctions on the Rally Around the Flag Effects Using Focused Group Discussion with North Korean Defectors

34 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2022

See all articles by Baran Han

Baran Han

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Inbok Rhee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Chrysostomos Tabakis

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: December 31, 2020

Abstract

Despite the focused and concerted efforts, why has sanctions against North Korea been ineffective in forcing Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs? On the surface, the sanctions against North Korea seem to have had all the elements for success. First, the sanctions received broad international support. Since the first United Nations Security Council resolution against North Korea in 2006, the international community has imposed sanctions to condemn its missile and nuclear tests. Second, the sanctions were also of high intensity and of broad scope. Initially, before 2016 the UN resolutions were defined narrowly around the missiles and nuclear programs Throughout 2016 and 2017, however, after North Korea conducted its 4th nuclear test on 6 January 2016 and launched a ballistic missile on 7 February 2016, the sanction expanded in scope to curb the financial capability of the regime by installing trade bans, restricting access to foreign financial institutions, as well as prohibiting employment of North Korean workers abroad. Third, the US was even able to coerce China - previously considered as the greatest loophole in the sanctions regime - to partake in the sanction drive against North Korea by imposing secondary sanctions in 2016. Forth, the sanctions also seem to make the intended negative impact on the North Korean economy: in 2017 and 2018, the North Korean economy experienced overall GNI growth rates of -3.5% and -4.1%, respectively, with the sectors such as mining which were direct targets of the sanctions growing at rates of -11.0% and -17.8% (Bank of Korea Statistics n.d.). However, despite such detrimental economic impact of sanctions, the international community is yet to witness the North Korean state giving up its nuclear arms.

Suggested Citation

Han, Baran and Rhee, Inbok and Tabakis, Chrysostomos, Rally Around Which Flag?: Investigation of the Impact of Sanctions on the Rally Around the Flag Effects Using Focused Group Discussion with North Korean Defectors (December 31, 2020). KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4054309 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4054309

Baran Han (Contact Author)

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Inbok Rhee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Chrysostomos Tabakis

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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