Misinformed or Overconfident? Fake News and Youth Voting Likelihood in the Philippines

Abstract

How can online misinformation affect the Filipino youth’s likelihood to vote? While the youth is recognized as a crucial sector for Philippine democracy, disillusionment towards the government can compromise participation. We examine how social media, by facilitating the spread of misinformation and incivility, inhibits voting likelihood among the youth. Using ordered logistic regression on survey data comprising 23,996 college students across the country, we find that citizens who can accurately identify real political news from fake and have high confidence in their ability to detect misinformation are more likely to vote in the upcoming Philippine presidential elections. Thus, contrary to previous empirical work, both confidence and information accuracy are crucial predictors of voter likelihood.

Keywords: Misinformation, Voting Likelihood, Media, Youth, Philippines