Does Industrial Transfer Affect Regional Carbon Intensity? Evidence from China's Secondary Industry

Abstract

Over the past 20 years, China has experienced several waves of secondary industrial transfer. Many energy-intensive industries have moved from eastern China to central and western China, triggering a broad discussion about the transfer of secondary industry and carbon transfer. However, there is little knowledge about the structure of secondary industrial transfer and the transfer's impact on carbon intensity. Based on the latest multi-regional input-output (MRIO) table, this paper measures the scale, trend and structure of the secondary industry transfer between eight regions in China and obtains panel data of the interregional industrial transfer across 30 provinces. By applying GMM techniques on the panel data, the effect of secondary industry transfer on regional carbon intensity is discussed. The results confirm that the inflow of secondary industry positively affects the carbon intensity, and this effect is stronger in the central regions. In addition, heterogeneity analysis shows that implementing the "Belt and Road" Initiative enhances the impact of secondary industry transfer on carbon intensity. This paper deepens the understanding of the environmental effects of industrial transfer.

Keywords: Industrial transfer, Carbon intensity, The Belt and Road Initiative