Advancing Development in Uganda: Evaluating Policy Choices and Their Long-Term Impact

Abstract

The policy, programming, and donor communities in Uganda face a range of competing priorities that will shape future patterns of development. Various factors will determine which policies should be prioritized, including long-term patterns of human, social and environmental development. This report is motivated by the desire to better understand the future of development in Uganda to support these decision-makers as they choose among various policy options in a future characterized by uncertainty.

This report begins by modeling Uganda’s current long-term development trajectory through 2030, 2040, and 2050 (this scenario is called the Current Path). We do this by quantifying development dynamics and trends across a suite of interconnected quantitative modules covering development in agriculture, demographics, economics, education governance, and health. In this scenario, Uganda follows policy priorities that have characterized development over the previous decade. On this path, Uganda is poised to make significant development gains, such as growing the economy (roughly doubling in size every ten years) and reducing extreme poverty (by over 25 percentage points over the next 20 years).

Next, to evaluate the impact of alternative policy outcomes on human development, we model scenarios that prioritizes more extensive investments in particular sectors.

• The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a considerable rise in multidimensional poverty. We estimate that the pandemic will push about 2 million additional Ugandans into poverty in 2021.
• Population growth is a significant barrier to development. Slowing population growth makes investments go further and reduces the economic growth required to eliminate poverty. This reduces long-term poverty more than any other in this analysis.
• Improving governance quality attracts investment, encourages formal employment, and increases productivity. Good governance has the broadest benefits of all interventions, including the largest increase in long-term economic growth and income.
• Prioritizing investments in agriculture leads to significant improvements in poverty and food security over the next 20 years. Enhancing agricultural production can increase rural well-being and build resilience to future climate-related shocks.
• Improving primary school survival rates and the quality of instruction reduces poverty and inequality in the long-term substantially.
• Prioritizing key health interventions, including improving access safe water and sanitation and enhancing treatment for HIV/AIDS and malaria, has significant effects on long-term health, income, and poverty in Uganda.