Medication Against Conflict

106 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2022

See all articles by Andrea Berlanda

Andrea Berlanda

University of Padova, Department of Economics and Management

Matteo Cervellati

Università di Bologna

Elena Esposito

University of Lausanne

Dominic Rohner

University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2022

Abstract

The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention – the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemic – in Africa. To identify the effect, we combine exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social violence and unrest, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal the largest potential gains in countries with intermediate HIV prevalence where disease control has been given relatively low priority.

Note:
Funding Information: Dominic Rohner gratefully acknowledges financial support from the ERC Starting Grant POLICIES FOR PEACE-677595. Uwe Sunde gratefully acknowledges financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through CRC TRR 190 (project number 280092119).

Declaration of Interests: None to declare.

Keywords: HIV, conflict, social violence, ART expansion, trust, Africa, health intervention, domestic violence

JEL Classification: C360, D470, I150, O100

Suggested Citation

Berlanda, Andrea and Cervellati, Matteo and esposito, elena and Rohner, Dominic and Sunde, Uwe, Medication Against Conflict (2022). CESifo Working Paper No. 9650, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4072255 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4072255

Andrea Berlanda (Contact Author)

University of Padova, Department of Economics and Management ( email )

Via del Santo 33
Padova, Padova 35123
Italy

Matteo Cervellati

Università di Bologna ( email )

Via Zamboni, 33
Bologna, 40126
Italy

Elena Esposito

University of Lausanne ( email )

Quartier Chambronne
Lausanne, Vaud CH-1015
Switzerland

Dominic Rohner

University of Lausanne ( email )

Quartier Chambronne
Lausanne, Vaud CH-1015
Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) ( email )

Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1
Munich, DE Bavaria 80539
Germany

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