Multi-Hazard Coupled Risk Assessment for Large-Scale Activities – a Case Study of the Beijing Winter Olympics 2022

Abstract

Considering the limited knowledge regarding multi-disaster coupled accident risk identification and imperfect risk assessments during large-scale events, this report proposes a regional multi-disaster coupling risk assessment method for large-scale events based on analysis of sudden disasters involved in previous scenarios. The method requires first identifying and evaluating the disaster types and their associated risks; then, the initial risk value is determined, and the coupling relationships and coupling strengths between the relevant disasters are analyzed to further elucidate the risks associated with each disaster. Finally, the multi-disaster coupling risk obtained from the linear weighted single-disaster risks is corrected to evaluate the potential hazards in the area being assessed. The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing are taken as an example to verify the validity of the developed approach. The evaluation results are consistent with the research results, which overall indicate that the designed method can accurately identify high-risk areas in the region; thus, it can be implemented on a large scale in practical applications.

Keywords: Large-scale activity, multi-disaster coupling, secondary disaster, risk assessment