Migration, the Sahel and the Mediterranean basin: which scenario for the EU27 by 2025?

Abstract

In choosing to focus on the situation in the Mediterranean region over the past four years, the present article aims to assess how the Commission’s White Paper on the ‘Future of Europe’ confronts the reality of economic migration in the broader context of the Sahel region and the Mediterranean basin. Taking the shortcomings of the EU engagement in the Mediterranean embodied by Operation Sophia/EUNAVFOR Med as an example, the present article debates the value of a "scenario 4½", based on the White Paper's scenarios 4 and 5 regarding Schengen, migration & security and foreign policy & defence. The present article mainly reaffirms that economic migration is a global issue providing an opportunity for the EU to play a decisive role in the development of global administration, thus enriching the discussion on Global Administrative Law in connection with the origins and impact of global governance. In this regard, unilateral actions by key EU Member-States pose a severe risk of undermining the relevance of EU Law and Public International Law toward the management of economic migration. Looking at the foreseen impact for Administrative Law, the article advocates the need to perhaps revisit the distinct types of barriers to external influences that national Administrative Law regimes have. One example refers to applying International Law instruments and considering the increasing impact of International Law on how competencies are exercised by public administrations in EU Member-States – especially as States resort to national Constitutional Law as the last line of defence against ECJ rulings.