Refugees, Right-Wing Populism and Propaganda: Evidence from the Italian Dispersal Policy

Abstract

This paper examines how the 2014-2017 ‘Refugee Crisis’ in Italy affected voting behavior and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. We collect novel administrative data across all Italian municipalities and leverage exogenous variation in refugee resettlement induced by the Dispersal Policy. We find a positive and significant effect of the share of asylum seekers on support for radical-right anti-immigration parties. The effect is heterogeneous across municipality characteristics, yet robust to dispersal policy features. We provide causal evidence that the anti-immigration backlash is not rooted in adverse economic effects, while it is triggered by radical–right propaganda.

Keywords: Immigration, Refugee Crisis, Voting Behavior, Dispersal Policy, Propaganda

JEL Classification: D72; F22; O15; P16