Every Casus Belli Is False: Deconstructing Russia’s Case for War on Ukraine

Abstract

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only been fought physically but in information space to control the narrative. In the modern information age, the preparation of the ground for war tends to follow a rather simple formula: de-legitimize the target country; demonize the target country; set out a list of grievances to legitimize the use of force; concoct a “casus belli” (a cause for war) to serve as a trigger; and launch pre-emptive strikes on ulterior motives. Almost invariably, wars feature a predator-prey relationship: they are started by more powerful countries attacking a weaker country in pursuit of some “interest”. Given this, the war is fought on the territory of the weaker power, while the larger power portrays the invasion as a “liberation” and the invaders as “saviours” once the deed is done. This note considers how Russia’s preparation of the case for its war on Ukraine fits against this template.

Keywords: casus belli, Ukraine, Russia, propaganda, information society

JEL Classification: F51, N44