Spatial Risk Assessment for Climate Proofing of Economic Activities: The Case of Belluno Province (North-East Italy)

Abstract

Entrepreneurs, investors and public administrations need information about climate change risks for planning and decision making. In order to move from generic global or national projections about climate change scenarios, towards a more useful information for socioeconomic agents, the three dimensions of risk (Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability) must be quantified. This is made by means of spatial indicators, tailored to the social and ecological systems of interest and aggregated into specific risk indexes quantified in economic terms. In this work, sectoral climate risk indexes are calculated and mapped for the four most important economic sectors of the study area of the Belluno Province (NE Italy): summer tourism, winter sports and events, the eyewear industry, and the electricity supply. Results of risk assessment consist in sets of maps and statistical summaries, highlighting future trends and their spatial variability within the study area, thus offering local stakeholders quantitative elements for considering expected changes in future damages in their decisions. Providing estimations of changes of future damages by keeping constant the Exposure and Vulnerability dimensions allows socioeconomic agents to acquire simple and clear messages about how their activities could suffer or benefit from climate change in the future.

Keywords: climate proofing, economic sector, spatial model, monetary damage, Alps