The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Commercial Investment and Economic Activity

67 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2022 Last revised: 15 Nov 2023

See all articles by Naomi Feldman

Naomi Feldman

Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Kevin Corinth

University of Chicago

Date Written: November 14, 2023

Abstract

Place-based policies aim to stimulate economic development in disadvantaged areas with the goal of improving the well-being of residents. A provision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act aimed to spur private investment in low-income areas called Opportunity Zones (OZs). We evaluate the impact of OZs on investment using data on the near-universe of commercial retail, office, and industrial real estate investments in the United States and a regression discontinuity design that exploits randomness near the OZ eligibility threshold. From 2019-2022, we find economically small and statistically insignificant point estimates of the effect of OZ eligibility on census tract-level investment. Additional data from MasterCard show no robust evidence of increased business activity nor consumer spending. However, we find suggestive effects on investment in multi-family housing in certain years. We conclude that almost five years after the OZ policy was implemented, there is no evidence of a private investment response that has spread beyond multi-family housing, limiting the potential of the policy to stimulate broad economic development and improve the well-being of residents.

Keywords: Opportunity zones, investment, tax policy, poverty

JEL Classification: H53, E22, D61

Suggested Citation

Feldman, Naomi and Corinth, Kevin, The Impact of Opportunity Zones on Commercial Investment and Economic Activity (November 14, 2023). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4086056 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4086056

Naomi Feldman (Contact Author)

Hebrew University of Jerusalem ( email )

Mount Scopus
Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91905
Israel

Kevin Corinth

University of Chicago ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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