Linear or Non-Linear? Cooperative Game Theory Framework for Weapon Equipment System Contribution Rate Evaluation

Abstract

Contribution rate evaluation plays a key role in new weapon or equipment development project demonstration, since the priority of potentially developed weapon depends on the contribution of weapons and equipment to the effectiveness of the Combat System of Systems (CSoS). However, previous studies largely ignore the emergent and non-linear characteristics of the CSoS caused by cooperation and complex interactions among constituent systems. To fill this gap, this work aims to construct a novel cooperative game theory framework for contribution rate evaluation, where regards constituent entities in the CSoS as players in a game. Consequently, this original problem is transferred to payoffs (i.e., CSoS effectiveness) allocation issues. Then, the Shapley-value based contribution rate evaluation method is proposed. Moreover, to reduce the computation burden, the negotiated solution-based evaluation is designed, which requires less information compared to the former method. Finally, the contribution rate assessment of new weapons in an air defense missile weapon equipment system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The evaluation results will provide decision-maker comprehensive understanding of the contribution of new weapons and support the selection of suitable new weapons and equipment with high contribution rate.

Keywords: Combat System of Systems, contribution rate evaluation, Cooperative game, Shapley value, Negotiated solution.