What if the Post-War Boom Had Simply Continued?: Notes on an Economic Counterfactual

Abstract

This working paper takes up the familiar theme of the decline of Gross Domestic Product and Gross World Product growth since the 1960s, making original calculations from World Bank data to estimate the consequences of a counterfactual continuation of post-war boom-era growth rates, the actual historical trend, and the marked gap between the two. Presented as another way of considering the disparity between past expectations and present realities, the paper relates the lengthy economic stagnation to which the figures testify to the decline of earlier optimism about the future.

Keywords: Economic History, Economic Growth, Gross World Product, Post-War Boom, Neoliberalism, Political Economy, Hauntology