Do Citizens Keep Voting or Abstaining by Habit? No

Abstract

The conventional wisdom is that voting is a habit. We challenge this idea and argue that it is not a compelling explanation of citizens’ decision to vote or abstain. Building on theoretical foundations of the habitual voter model, we test whether the coherent and fundamental prediction of the model holds. That is, key factors shaping voter turnout should play a lesser role among voters who have acquired a habit. Using data from the British Election Study including a validated turnout measure, we systematically fail to find evidence for such prediction. Our research challenges the interpretation that people vote or abstain because they used to do so in the past. An alternative explanation is that people keep voting (or abstaining) over time because the deeply rooted attitudes that drive their decision (political interest, civic duty, etc.) are very stable.

Keywords: Voter Turnout, Habit, Elections, Long-Term Effects