Title: An Introduction to Wind Energy Subtitle: Can “Renewables” Replace Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Energy in Germany?

Abstract

this is an unpublished working paper, seeking feedback.

Abstract

Electricity can, in principle, power all the energy demands of civilization provided sufficient electricity can be produced reliably and at an affordable cost. First, we give a detailed introduction of the economic and physical mechanisms of wind energy. Next, we pose the questions whether the available wind resource or the wind resource plus the solar photovoltaic resource can meet the demand of Germany for its entire energy demand.

Our back-of-envelope (BOE) analysis, using only published data, arrives at a surprising answer for the German energy transition. The authors conclude that wind energy coupled with solar photovoltaic and backup systems may not be solution that Germany should seek for their future electricity supply. Wind speed is highly correlated over continental-sized areas. Ultra-long distance transmission of power from hemisphere to hemisphere might provide reliable global electrical energy supplies, but entail such large energy losses that it presently is environmentally undesirable and economically unviable.

Further, the complementarity of wind and solar PV between sunny and windy days, even over more than continental areas, is insufficient. Building equal output wind and PV facilities, each meeting a specified peak plus dynamic power demand appears to meet power demands most of the time, but with unacceptable periods of load shedding or grid collapse during the other times.

The total land or sea area required for wind farms and PV parks to power Germany approximates the area of Germany. This result is confirmed by diverse analyses of the wind and solar PV resources detailed herein. Wind farms are an energy system that presents demonstrable net climatological and net ecological disadvantages, including potential species’ extinction as well as atmospheric warming comparable to that imputed to CO2. Modern wind turbines reach 250-meter heights, and at grid-scale threaten migratory birds, bats, and insects, and changewind patterns. This result perverts the very reason for the conception and construction of the renewable energy system in the first place. The resulting biological and climatological hazards of grid scale wind and solar installations will likely be regretted for their irreversible consequences.

Materials demand for wind turbine and PV park replacement of the current electricity demand is a further limiting factor in the energy transition away from existing conventional base power. The transition must also include the continual “repowering” of onshore/offshore wind farms about every 15-20 years. The slowing of the growth rate of wind power over the past decade will not meet “Net-Zero” 2050 goals.

Finally, the magnitude of the essential backup for German variable renewable energy is illustrated by comparing 100% of Norway’s vast hydroelectric energy storage capability with present German electrical energy. Draining the entire Norwegian hydroelectric storage supplies German electrical demand for less than 6 days, not the required minimum one month. The future electrical energy demand growth under “Net-Zero” 2050 to cover essentially all energy demand eliminates even the possibility of a sufficient hydroelectric backup. In conclusion: Complete “renewable” energy supply for Germany and the backup requirement simply do not add up, even under generous assumptions.

Keywords: Germany, wind, renewable, energy, energy policy, material efficiency, weibull