Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications

Abstract

Recently some of us reported Monte Carlo calculations of COVID-19 spread as a contact process, using random walkers on a two-dimensional plane. The calculations were shown follow observed growth trajectories for secondary and tertiary waves of infection in countries such as the USA, India, South Africa and Serbia~[Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 156 (2022) 111785]. However, the simulations failed to predict the recently observed Omicron-driven third wave for India. Here we present a more complete set of simulations for India, that take into consideration two important aspects not incorporated in the previous work. These include the stochastic movement of an erstwhile immobile (and protected) fraction of the population because of the easing of restrictions, and a possible reinfection of some recovered individuals, because of their exposure to a different variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These new simulations now show a third COVID-19 wave for India that was missing in the earlier calculations. Additionally, they also indicate a significant fourth wave for India on or around June 01, 2022.

Note:
Funding Information: ST acknowledges funding support from the National Research Foundation (South Africa) under grant number 85100.

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, random walk, Monte Carlo simulations, epidemic waves

JEL Classification: C63, I1