Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications

21 Pages Posted: 13 May 2022 Last revised: 5 Jan 2023

See all articles by Smarajit Triambak

Smarajit Triambak

University of the Western Cape

D.P. Mahapatra

Utkal University

N. Barik

Utkal University

A. Chutjian

Armenian Engineers and Scientists of America

Date Written: May 2, 2022

Abstract

Recently some of us used a random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach to study the spread of COVID-19. The calculations were reasonably successful in describing secondary and tertiary waves of infection, in countries such as the USA, India, South Africa and Serbia. However, they failed to predict the observed third wave for India. In this work we present a more complete set of simulations for India, that take into consideration two aspects that were not incorporated previously. These include the stochastic movement of an erstwhile protected fraction of the population, and the reinfection of some recovered individuals because of their exposure to a new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The extended simulations now show the third COVID-19 wave for India that was missing in the earlier calculations. They also suggest an additional fourth wave, which was indeed observed during approximately the same time period as the model prediction.

Note:
Funding Information: ST acknowledges funding support from the National Research Foundation (South Africa) under grant number 85100.

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, random walk, Monte Carlo simulations, epidemic waves

JEL Classification: C63, I1

Suggested Citation

Triambak, Smarajit and Mahapatra, D.P. and Barik, N. and Chutjian, A., Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications (May 2, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4098382 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4098382

Smarajit Triambak (Contact Author)

University of the Western Cape ( email )

Robert Sobukwe Road
Bellville, 7535
South Africa

D.P. Mahapatra

Utkal University

Vanivihar
Bhubaneswar
India

N. Barik

Utkal University

Vanivihar
Bhubaneswar
India

A. Chutjian

Armenian Engineers and Scientists of America

United States

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