Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications

13 Pages Posted: 13 May 2022

See all articles by Smarajit Triambak

Smarajit Triambak

University of the Western Cape

D.P. Mahapatra

Utkal University

N. Barik

Utkal University

A. Chutjian

Armenian Engineers and Scientists of America

Date Written: May 2, 2022

Abstract

Recently some of us reported Monte Carlo calculations of COVID-19 spread as a contact process, using random walkers on a two-dimensional plane. The calculations were shown follow observed growth trajectories for secondary and tertiary waves of infection in countries such as the USA, India, South Africa and Serbia~[Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 156 (2022) 111785]. However, the simulations failed to predict the recently observed Omicron-driven third wave for India. Here we present a more complete set of simulations for India, that take into consideration two important aspects not incorporated in the previous work. These include the stochastic movement of an erstwhile immobile (and protected) fraction of the population because of the easing of restrictions, and a possible reinfection of some recovered individuals, because of their exposure to a different variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These new simulations now show a third COVID-19 wave for India that was missing in the earlier calculations. Additionally, they also indicate a significant fourth wave for India on or around June 01, 2022.

Note:
Funding Information: ST acknowledges funding support from the National Research Foundation (South Africa) under grant number 85100.

Conflict of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, random walk, Monte Carlo simulations, epidemic waves

JEL Classification: C63, I1

Suggested Citation

Triambak, Smarajit and Mahapatra, D.P. and Barik, N. and Chutjian, A., Plausible Explanation for the Third COVID-19 Wave in India and Its Implications (May 2, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4098382 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4098382

Smarajit Triambak (Contact Author)

University of the Western Cape ( email )

Robert Sobukwe Road
Bellville, 7535
South Africa

D.P. Mahapatra

Utkal University

Vanivihar
Bhubaneswar
India

N. Barik

Utkal University

Vanivihar
Bhubaneswar
India

A. Chutjian

Armenian Engineers and Scientists of America

United States

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