Should Serbia join the European Union, and what cost might this entail?

Abstract

The Government of Serbia repeatedly declares its priority of joining of the European Union (EU), advancing a silly and politically suicidal declaration that there is no plan B for Serbia. But enlargement is not part of the EU’s real agenda, in spite of its meaningless and politically empty declarations to this end. The EU has much more important issues to solve, including its own survival. The economic, political and social costs of Serbia joining the EU are enormous and manifold. The Government of Serbia and EU-paid lobbyists emphasise material gains and EU solidarity. This may be music to the ears of a population in a relatively poor country such as Serbia, but the costs it will imply for Serbia are almost never mentioned. This is insidious and dishonest, and hides the reality that for Serbia the EU no longer provides economic or political fuel from which any attractive mileage can be gained. What will Serbia get in return for its EU membership? The EU is unstable (Brexit; the future of the EU is in question; economic catastrophe created by the euro) and dysfunctional (countries have mostly not been able to agree on anything of substance for more than 15 years). As Serbia shall never join the EU as a full member, the country should have a plan B and look at the experiences of Switzerland, Israel, Singapore, South Korea and even Britain. There exists life and prosperity outside of the EU.

Keywords: Serbia, EU, enlargement, Brexit, Mini Schengen, Open Balkan, Project Fear, Kosovo

JEL Classification: F13, F15, F50