The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil

101 Pages Posted: 6 May 2022 Last revised: 11 Sep 2022

See all articles by Gustavo de Souza

Gustavo de Souza

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Haishi Li

The University of Hong Kong

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 22, 2020


Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? To answer this question we compile data on all anti-dumping (AD) investigations in Brazil, which we match to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we estimate the effect of AD tariffs on trade, the protected national suppliers, and the sectors linked to these suppliers. In response to an AD tariff, imports decrease and employment increases in the protected sector. Moreover, downstream firms decrease employment, while upstream ones are not affected. To quantify the aggregate effect of these tariffs, we build a model with international trade, input-output linkages, and labor force participation. The model can reproduce the micro-elasticities we find, as well as the aggregate moments of the Brazilian economy. We show that the Brazilian AD policy increased employment by 0.06%, but they decreased welfare by 2.4%. Using tariffs, the government can increase employment by as much as 2.8%.

Keywords: employment, tariffs, anti-dumping, international trade

JEL Classification: F13, F16

Suggested Citation

de Souza, Gustavo and Li, Haishi, The Employment Consequences of Anti-Dumping Tariffs: Lessons from Brazil (October 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: or

Gustavo De Souza

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ( email )

230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604
United States

Haishi Li (Contact Author)

The University of Hong Kong ( email )

Pokfulam Road
Hong Kong, Pokfulam HK

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