Learning by Accident?: Reductions in the Risk of Unplanned Outages in U.S. Nuclear Power Plants after Three Mile Island

JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY, Vol. 13, No. 2

Posted: 4 May 1998

See all articles by Paul A. David

Paul A. David

Stanford University - Department of Economics; University of Oxford - All Souls College; UNU-MERIT (Maastricht)

Roland Maude-Griffin

Stanford University

Geoffrey Rothwell

OECD

Abstract

This study uses a Cox proportional hazards model to analyze changes in the risk of unplanned outages in U.S. nuclear power plants after the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident. The unplanned outage hazard is related to safety by the fact that most such outages begin with unplanned reactor scrams. These place extreme stresses on plant equipment, increasing the risk of serious accident. The estimates indicate that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-led efforts to improve nuclear plant safety after TMI were followed by substantial reductions in the risk of unplanned outages.

JEL Classification: L94, L51, Q40, C41

Suggested Citation

David, Paul A. and Maude-Griffin, Roland and Rothwell, Geoffrey, Learning by Accident?: Reductions in the Risk of Unplanned Outages in U.S. Nuclear Power Plants after Three Mile Island. JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY, Vol. 13, No. 2, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4101

Paul A. David

Stanford University - Department of Economics ( email )

Landau Economics Building
579 Serra Mall
Stanford, CA 94305-6072
United States
650 723-3710 (Phone)
650 725-5702 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/

University of Oxford - All Souls College ( email )

High Street
Oxford, Oxon. OX1 4AL
United Kingdom
44 (0)1865 279299 (Phone)
44 (0)1865 279313 (Fax)

UNU-MERIT (Maastricht) ( email )

Keizer Karel Plein 19
Maastricht, TC 6211
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://ccg.merit.unu.edu/

Roland Maude-Griffin

Stanford University

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Geoffrey Rothwell (Contact Author)

OECD ( email )

Nuclear Energy Agency
Antibes, Alps-Maritimes 06600
France
33-(0)6-81211816 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/Rothwell_CV.pdf

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