ГЛОБАЛЬНІ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНІ НАСЛІДКИ РОСІЙСЬКО-УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ ВІЙНИ (Global Socio-Economic Implications of The Russia-Ukraine War)

Abstract

English Abstract: 
The Russian-Ukrainian war is the worst in Europe since World War II. In 2014, Russia violated Europe's postwar security system after the annexation of Crimea, proclamation of LPR (Luhansk People's Republic) and DPR (Donetsk People's Republic) on the territory of Eastern Ukraine, and in 2022 launched a full-scale military invasion into Ukraine along the entire border and from Belarus. The World Bank predicts that due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, global economic growth in 2022 will decline from 4.1% to 3.2%, countries will face stagflation (stagnation in production occurs simultaneously with inflation), rising energy prices, disruption of supply chains. The population will be forced to live in a turbulent environment, constant food shortages, limited jobs, which will lead to mass food riots and protests. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a serious economic shock of indefinite duration and scale. The war on the territory of Ukraine will cause greater economic damage to Eastern Europe and parts of Asia than the coronavirus pandemic. World oil prices have already risen by 33% and coal by 80%. Gas prices rose 85% in Europe, 10% in North America and 20% in the rest of the world. Ukraine is a key player in agri-food markets. Globally, the conflict will lead to a long-term reduction in Ukraine's food exports and increase world food prices, to the detriment of economically vulnerable countries. FAO experts predict that in this scenario, the total number of people suffering from malnutrition could increase by 8–13 million people in 2022/23, the most pronounced growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region. The author set goals: to study the global socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war; to analyze the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the Least developed countries (LDC) and low-income countries with food shortages (LIFDC) and dependent on imported food, rely on Ukrainian food products to meet their consumer needs; assess the impact of the war on the migration situation in Ukraine and in the European Union; identify violations of Russia's norms and principles of international humanitarian law; predict future geopolitical transformation.

Note: Downloadable document is in Ukrainian.

Keywords: Russian-Ukraine War, scenarios of economic development, stagflation, economic sanctions, humanitarian crisis, food riots, Arab Spring, internally displaced persons, Lublin Triangle, Associated Trio, Small Alliance, Quadriga