Surveys of Professionals

52 Pages Posted: 10 May 2022

See all articles by Michael P. Clements

Michael P. Clements

University of Reading - Henley Business School

Robert W. Rich

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Joseph S. Tracy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Date Written: May 10, 2022

Abstract

This chapter provides an overview of surveys of professional forecasters, with a focus on the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters and the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. A distinguishing feature of these surveys is that they collect point and density forecasts and make the data publicly available. We discuss their structure, issues involved in using the data, and the construction of measures such as disagreement and uncertainty at the aggregate and individual levels. Our review also summarizes the findings of studies exploring issues such as the alignment of point forecasts with measures of central tendency from associated density forecasts, the coverage of density forecasts, the rounding of point and density forecasts, comparisons of forecast accuracy across respondents, and heterogeneity in forecast behavior and the persistence of these differential features. We conclude with some observations for future work.

Keywords: economic forecasting, survey expectations, data collection and modeling, quantitative methods

JEL Classification: C53; E47; E84

Suggested Citation

Clements, Michael P. and Rich, Robert W. and Tracy, Joseph, Surveys of Professionals (May 10, 2022). FRB of Cleveland Working Paper No. 22-13, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4105536 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4105536

Michael P. Clements

University of Reading - Henley Business School ( email )

Whiteknights
Reading, RG6 6BA
United Kingdom

Robert W. Rich (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ( email )

East 6th & Superior
Cleveland, OH 44101-1387
United States
216 579-2928 (Phone)

Joseph Tracy

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

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