RISE-UP: Integrating Resilience into Urban Planning for Climate Uncertainty - Theoretical reflections and empirical insights from the Global North and Global South

Abstract

Climate change is one of the main drivers of uncertainty for long-term urban planning. While only a few papers systematically address long-term climate uncertainties in planning theory, urban resilience theory presents principles to manage this uncertainty. However, urban resilience theory largely focuses on individual urban systems rather than complex urban networks. Further, most planning and resilience theory originates from the Global North and is unsuitable for capturing the Global South's dynamics. This study makes headway toward a theory for long-term urban planning under climate uncertainty. We argue that long-term urban planning can benefit from theories on urban resilience and approaches to urban planning under uncertainty. We use a two-step qualitative research approach to (1) Propose a unified conceptual framework connecting Urban Resilience Principles, Approaches to Urban Planning under Uncertainty and Urban Systems; and (2) Use the framework to assess climate-related planning responses in two case studies. To capture the dissimilarities between the Global North (GN) and Global South (GS), we use contrasting case studies: Amsterdam (GN) and Mumbai (GS). This exploratory multi-case theory-building approach helps build the empirical foundations for long-term urban planning strategies across contexts. We conclude with four propositions towards a theory on long-term urban planning under climate uncertainty.

Keywords: urban resilience, long-term planning, Cities, Climate change, uncertainty, qualitative research