An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-adaptive Containment Measures

63 Pages Posted: 31 May 2022

See all articles by Alessandro Borin

Alessandro Borin

Bank of Italy

Sabina Marchetti

Bank of Italy

Francesco Paolo Conteduca

Bank of Italy

Giuseppe Ilardi

Bank of Italy

Giorgio Guzzetta

Fondazione Bruno Kessler

Piero Poletti

Fondazione Bruno Kessler

Patrizio Pezzotti

Istituto Superiore di Sanità - Dipartimento Malattie Infettive

Antonino Bella

Istituto Superiore di Sanità

Paola Stefanelli

Istituto Superiore di Sanità - Dipartimento Malattie Infettive

Flavia Riccardo

Istituto Superiore di Sanità

Stefano Merler

Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Center for Information Technology

Andrea Brandolini

Bank of Italy

Silvio Brusaferro

Istituto Superiore di Sanità

Date Written: April 20, 2022

Abstract

During the Covid-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be tailored to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the interdependence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic, mostly overlooked by existing epidemiological models. In our innovative approach, we instead develop a model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism, effective in Italy since November 2020, and allows us to track the historical evolution of both health outcomes and restrictions in the country. By focusing on the epidemic wave triggered by the onset of the Delta variant, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. This trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g. vaccination coverage), with less reactive mechanisms (e.g. those based on occupancy rates) becoming more advantageous in favourable contexts.

Note:
Funding Information: The research work received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Conflict of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: covid-19, epidemiological model, restrictions, Italy

JEL Classification: H51, I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Borin, Alessandro and Marchetti, Sabina and Conteduca, Francesco Paolo and Ilardi, Giuseppe and Guzzetta, Giorgio and Poletti, Piero and Pezzotti, Patrizio and Bella, Antonino and Stefanelli, Paola and Riccardo, Flavia and Merler, Stefano and Brandolini, Andrea and Brusaferro, Silvio, An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-adaptive Containment Measures (April 20, 2022). Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 681, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4109454 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4109454

Alessandro Borin

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Sabina Marchetti (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Francesco Paolo Conteduca

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://fpconteduca.com

Giuseppe Ilardi

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Giorgio Guzzetta

Fondazione Bruno Kessler ( email )

Via Sommarive 18
Povo
Trento, 38123
Italy

Piero Poletti

Fondazione Bruno Kessler ( email )

Via Sommarive 18
Povo
Trento, 38123
Italy

Patrizio Pezzotti

Istituto Superiore di Sanità - Dipartimento Malattie Infettive ( email )

Italy

Antonino Bella

Istituto Superiore di Sanità ( email )

Viale Regina Elena 299
Roma, 00161
Italy

Paola Stefanelli

Istituto Superiore di Sanità - Dipartimento Malattie Infettive ( email )

Flavia Riccardo

Istituto Superiore di Sanità ( email )

Viale Regina Elena 299
Roma, 00161
Italy

Stefano Merler

Fondazione Bruno Kessler - Center for Information Technology ( email )

Via Sommarive 18
Povo
Trento, 38123
Italy

Andrea Brandolini

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Roma, Rome 00184
Italy
+390647923568 (Phone)
+390647923720 (Fax)

Silvio Brusaferro

Istituto Superiore di Sanità ( email )

Viale Regina Elena 299
Roma, 00161
Italy

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