External Adjustment in Commodity Exporting Countries During Energy Price Downturns

28 Pages Posted: 19 May 2022

Date Written: May 16, 2022

Abstract

Recent examples of energy price downturns did not alter trade surpluses in commodity exporting countries, as both exports and imports decreased in equal measures on average. Economic theory contends that such developments may indicate that the changes observed in energy prices are perceived as permanent by the market. We believe that this is a feasible interpretation that is in line with the recent evidence of the financialisation of oil markets (i.e., the situation in which expected supply and demand developments are immediately incorporated into prices, while transitory developments are filtered out by well-informed and proactive market participants).

Keywords: terms of trade, current account, oil price, trend and cycle decomposition

JEL Classification: E44, F32, G12, G15

Suggested Citation

Burova, Anna and Ponomarenko, Alexey and Reentovich, Alexander, External Adjustment in Commodity Exporting Countries During Energy Price Downturns (May 16, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4111463 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4111463

Anna Burova

Bank of Russia

12 Neglinnaya Street
Moscow, 107016
Russia

Alexey Ponomarenko (Contact Author)

Bank of Russia ( email )

12 Neglinnaya Street
Moscow, 107016
Russia

Alexander Reentovich

Bank of Russia

12 Neglinnaya Street
Moscow, 107016
Russia

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