The Economics of Fertility: A New Era

131 Pages Posted: 19 May 2022 Last revised: 10 Jan 2025

See all articles by Matthias Doepke

Matthias Doepke

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Anne Hannusch

University of Mannheim

Fabian Kindermann

University of Regensburg; Netspar

Michèle Tertilt

University of Mannheim - Department of Economics

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Abstract

In this survey, we argue that the economic analysis of fertility has entered a new era. First-generation models of fertility choice were designed to account for two empirical regularities that, in the past, held both across countries and across families in a given country: a negative relationship between income and fertility, and another negative relationship between women's labor force participation and fertility. The economics of fertility has entered a new era because these stylized facts no longer universally hold. In high-income countries, the income-fertility relationship has flattened and in some cases reversed, and the cross-country relationship between women's labor force participation and fertility is now positive. We summarize these new facts and describe new models that are designed to address them. The common theme of these new theories is that they view factors that determine the compatibility of women's career and family goals as key drivers of fertility. We highlight four factors that facilitate combining a career with a family: family policy, cooperative fathers, favorable social norms, and flexible labor markets. We also review other recent developments in the literature, and we point out promising new directions for future research on the economics of fertility.

Keywords: marital bargaining, family economics, fertility

JEL Classification: D13, J13, J16

Suggested Citation

Doepke, Matthias and Hannusch, Anne and Kindermann, Fabian and Tertilt, Michèle, The Economics of Fertility: A New Era. IZA Discussion Paper No. 15224, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4114800

Matthias Doepke (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
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IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
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Anne Hannusch

University of Mannheim ( email )

Fabian Kindermann

University of Regensburg ( email )

Universitaetsstrasse 31
D-93040 Regensburg
Germany

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Michèle Tertilt

University of Mannheim - Department of Economics ( email )

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

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