News Arrival, Time-Varying Jump Intensity, and Realized Volatility: Conditional Testing Approach

Abstract

This paper introduces new econometric tests to identify stochastic intensity jumps in high-frequency data. Our approach exploits the behavior of a time-varying stochastic intensity and allows us to assess how intensely stock market reacts to news. We describe the asymptotic properties of our test statistics, derive the associated central limit theorem and show in simulations that the tests have good size and reasonable power in finite-sample cases. Implementing our testing procedures on the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) data, we find strong evidence for the presence of intensity jumps surrounding the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy announcements. Intensity jumps occur very frequently, trigger sharp increases in realized volatility and arrive when differences-in-opinion among market participants are large at times of FOMC press releases. Unlike intensity jumps, volatility jumps fail to explain the variation in news-induced realized volatility.

Keywords: Time-varying jump intensity, Volatility jumps, High-frequency data, News announcements, Realized volatility, FOMC events

JEL Classification: C12, C14, C58, G10, G12