When Facts Polarize: Russian Information Operations and Polarization through Factual Content

Abstract

Growing ideological polarization now threatens democracies worldwide. This article addresses the inconclusive findings in political science regarding the role of counterattitudinal information in fueling such polarization. We argue that exposure to factual information embedded in one-sided narratives triggers reactance among those perceiving it as counterattitudinal, leading to backfiring, while simultaneously inducing confirmation bias among those who align with the information, hardening pre-existing beliefs. These two psychological phenomena combined lead to heightened polarization. We test our arguments using original, pre-registered survey experiments based on Russian information operations in Estonia, a NATO frontline state and prominent Kremlin target. Consistent with our theory, we find that one-sided factual content on Soviet legacy and migration polarizes voters along ethnolinguistic and pre-existing ideological cleavages. These findings advance scholarly understanding of the sources of ideological polarization and effects of information operations, particularly in the context of malign foreign influences.

Keywords: Polarization, information operations, reactance, Russia, Estonia