Modeling Fire Radiative Power Released by Vegetation Fires at the Global Scale Using a Two Generalized Pareto Tail Lognormal Body Distribution

Abstract

We present a statistical model with 8 parameters that combines three components, namely a truncated lognormal distribution central body with a lower and an upper tail, both consisting of Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. We fit the model to a dataset of more than 85 million records of the logarithm of fire radiative power (FRP) at the global scale, as derived from satellite observations covering a 19-year period (2002-2021). We use the model to identify a global decreasing trend in intensity of fires with moderate release of radiative power (between 10 and 100 MW) from 2002-2012 to 2012-2021 that is consistent with agricultural expansion and intensification. The model can be applied to the characterization of fire regimes, and to the calibration of meteorological fire danger indices that are used to assist fire prevention and suppression activities.

Keywords: Global fire activity, Fire Radiative Power, Two generalized Pareto tail lognormal body distribution, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer