Effect of Public Expenditure on Fertility Intention to Have a Second Child or More: Evidence from China's CGSS Survey Data

Cities 128(1):103812

23 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2022 Last revised: 20 Jun 2022

See all articles by Jiakai Zhang

Jiakai Zhang

New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology

Xia Li

The New School - Milano School of International Affairs, Management, and Urban Policy

Jie Tang

Renmin University of China

Date Written: March 8, 2022

Abstract

The aging population problem caused by low intention to give birth has already appeared in China and will become more severe in the future. Even with the gradual implementation of the two-child policy, there is still no significant change in the intention to have more children. Using data from the 2017 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and after consolidating city-level data from China’s City Statistic Yearbook and the CEIC database, this study conducted ordered probit regression analyses to investigate whether the public expenditure of local governments could significantly affect an individual’s fertility intention to have a second child or more. Our results show that overall government expenditure increases fertility intention. Quantitatively, an increase of 10,000 yuan per capita in government expenditure would lead to an increase in fertility intention from 2.357 to 3.407 children. In addition, specific forms of government expenditure, except for social security expenditure, could increase fertility intention. Finally, we explored the effect heterogeneity of public spending on fertility intention from different aspects. The government still plays an essential role in an individual’s fertility intention, but the effect of costs and expenses being borne by the government on increasing fertility intention will be significant.

Keywords: Public expenditure, Fertility intention, Two-child policy, China

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Jiakai and Li, Xia and Tang, Jie, Effect of Public Expenditure on Fertility Intention to Have a Second Child or More: Evidence from China's CGSS Survey Data (March 8, 2022). Cities 128(1):103812, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4129552

Jiakai Zhang (Contact Author)

New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology ( email )

801 Leroy Place
Socorro, NM 87801
United States
6077680809 (Phone)

Xia Li

The New School - Milano School of International Affairs, Management, and Urban Policy ( email )

72 Fifth Avenue
New York, NY 10011
United States

Jie Tang

Renmin University of China ( email )

Room B906
Xianjin Building
Beijing, Beijing 100872
China

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