Risk Profiles of Scenarios for the Low -Carbon Transition

Abstract

Providing energy to an economy needs many linked activities, each requiring infrastructure, before a fuel source becomes a final energy vector in the hands of a consumer. These fuel supply chains incur risks, and as a nation’s portfolio of fuels changes, so does the quantity, type, and distribution of the risks. The transition to low or net-zero carbon energy systems carries risks, the full range of which are not usually considered together. By examining the portfolio of fuels used by scenario developers, we generate future risk profiles, and show how individual risk categories change in relative importance. Identifying the origin and type of risk can inform policy since net-zero is not zero risk. We show how risks may decline with increasing capacity of renewable electricity generation, but that scenarios with similar aims can yield different risk profiles, which has implications for energy security.

Keywords: Energy security, Fuel, Negafuel, Net-zero, Risk, Scenarios