High School and Exam Scores: Does Their Predictive Validity for Academic Performance Vary with Programme Selectivity?

36 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2022

See all articles by Pedro Luis Silva

Pedro Luis Silva

University of Porto - CIPES; Universidade do Porto - Faculdade de Economia (FEP)

Carla Sá

Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES); University of Minho

Ricardo Biscaia

Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES); Universidade do Porto

Pedro Teixeira

Universidade do Porto - Faculdade de Economia (FEP)

Abstract

Students are admitted into higher education based on their past performance. This paper compares two measures of past cognitive skills: teacher and national exam scores. By using a nationwide dataset, we look at how the predictive power of teacher assessment and exam scores for selecting successful students may vary with the degree of selectivity of higher education programmes. We find that teacher scores predict students' performance in higher education more accurately, and its predictive power remains the same independently of the selectivity programme indicator considered. We found that national exam scores are noisier and only gain relevance for highly selective programmes. Furthermore, we explore national exams' volatility and institutional selectivity as potential mechanisms to justify the results. Our results provide solid policy hints on the role that high school scores and admission exams should have for access and performance in higher education.

Keywords: admission exams, teacher scores, higher education, selectivity

JEL Classification: I23, I21, I20, J24

Suggested Citation

Silva, Pedro Luis and Sá, Carla and Biscaia, Ricardo and Teixeira, Pedro, High School and Exam Scores: Does Their Predictive Validity for Academic Performance Vary with Programme Selectivity?. IZA Discussion Paper No. 15350, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4134133 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4134133

Pedro Luis Silva (Contact Author)

University of Porto - CIPES ( email )

Portugal

Universidade do Porto - Faculdade de Economia (FEP) ( email )

Rua Roberto Frias
s/n
Porto, 4200-464
Portugal

Carla Sá

Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES) ( email )

Portugal

University of Minho ( email )

Braga, 4700
Portugal

Ricardo Biscaia

Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies (CIPES) ( email )

Portugal

Universidade do Porto ( email )

Rua Dr. Roberto Frias
4200-464 Porto
Portugal

Pedro Teixeira

Universidade do Porto - Faculdade de Economia (FEP) ( email )

Rua Roberto Frias
s/n
Porto, 4200-464
Portugal

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