The 'Welcomed Lockdown' Hypothesis: When Do Mobility Restrictions Influence Mental Wellbeing?

74 Pages Posted: 16 Jun 2022

See all articles by Joan Costa-Font

Joan Costa-Font

London School of Economics

Martin Knapp

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Health and Social Care

Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto

University of Murcia

Date Written: 2022

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and its mobility restrictions have been an external shock, influencing wellbeing. However, does risk exposure affect the welfare effect of lockdowns? This paper examines the ‘welcomed lockdown’ hypothesis, namely the extent to which there is a level of risk where mobility restrictions are not a hindrance to wellbeing. We exploit the differential timing of the effect of the pandemic across European countries, and the different stringency of lockdown to examine the effects on two mental health conditions, namely anxiety and depression. We examine whether differences in symptoms of anxiety and depression are explained by mortality and stringency of lockdown measures using ad event study that draws on Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM), Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates suggest an average increase in depression (3.95%) and anxiety (10%) symptoms relative to the mean level on the day that the lockdown took effect. However, such effects are wiped out when a country exhibits high mortality (‘pandemic category 5’). Hence, we conclude that in an environment of high mortality, lockdowns no longer give rise to a reduction in well-being consistent with the ‘welcome lockdown’ hypothesis.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, Covid-19, pandemic, lockdown

JEL Classification: I180

Suggested Citation

Costa-Font, Joan and Knapp, Martin and Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina, The 'Welcomed Lockdown' Hypothesis: When Do Mobility Restrictions Influence Mental Wellbeing? (2022). CESifo Working Paper No. 9796, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4137953 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4137953

Joan Costa-Font (Contact Author)

London School of Economics ( email )

United Kingdom

Martin Knapp

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Health and Social Care ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto

University of Murcia ( email )

Avda Teniente Flomesta, 5
Murcia, Murcia 30100
Spain

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