Gloomy Expectations After the Invasion of Ukraine

12 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2022

Date Written: May 31, 2022

Abstract

Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war. I find that individuals expect lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war is larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency and it is still significant one month after the invasion. This is the first paper that estimates the causal effect of the war on individual expectations across countries.

Keywords: Expectations, War, Ukraine, Russia

JEL Classification: H56, J69, P42, C21

Suggested Citation

Depalo, Domenico and Depalo, Domenico, Gloomy Expectations After the Invasion of Ukraine (May 31, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4141374 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4141374

Domenico Depalo (Contact Author)

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
00184 Roma
Italy

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