Gloomy Expectations After the Invasion of Ukraine
12 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2022
Date Written: May 31, 2022
Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war. I find that individuals expect lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war is larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency and it is still significant one month after the invasion. This is the first paper that estimates the causal effect of the war on individual expectations across countries.
Keywords: Expectations, War, Ukraine, Russia
JEL Classification: H56, J69, P42, C21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation