The Impact of New Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence from Longitudinal Disease-Level Data from 52 Countries, 1982-2001

37 Pages Posted: 8 Jun 2003 Last revised: 3 Nov 2010

See all articles by Frank R. Lichtenberg

Frank R. Lichtenberg

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Date Written: June 2003

Abstract

We perform an econometric analysis of the effect of new drug launches on longevity, using data from the IMS Health Drug Launches database and the WHO Mortality Database. Our data cover virtually all of the diseases borne by people in 52 countries during the period 1982-2001, and enable us to control, to an unusually great extent, for the effects of other potential determinants of longevity, e.g. education, income, nutrition, the environment, and lifestyle'. We find that launches of new chemical entities (NCEs) have a strong positive impact on the probability of survival. Launches of (older) drugs that are not NCEs do not increase longevity. NCE launches account for a significant fraction of the long-run increase in longevity in the sample as a whole. Between 1986 and 2000, average life expectancy of the entire population of sample countries increased by almost two years. Our estimates imply that NCE launches accounted for 0.8 years (40%) of the 1986-2000 increase in longevity. The average annual increase in life expectancy of the entire population resulting from NCE launches is .056 years, or 2.93 weeks.

Suggested Citation

Lichtenberg, Frank R., The Impact of New Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence from Longitudinal Disease-Level Data from 52 Countries, 1982-2001 (June 2003). NBER Working Paper No. w9754, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=414252

Frank R. Lichtenberg (Contact Author)

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

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