Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk

Posted: 24 Jun 2022

See all articles by Michael T. Kiley

Michael T. Kiley

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: June 1, 2022

Abstract

Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have considered prediction models to assess the probability of a recession.

Suggested Citation

Kiley, Michael T., Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk (June 1, 2022). FEDS Notes No. 2022-06-21-1, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4145105 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3126

Michael T. Kiley (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-2448 (Phone)
202-452-5296 (Fax)

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