Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility

Abstract

The paper presents current and future approaches for assessing emergent digital technologies for the needs of the mobility sector. The concerted definition for the commonly used umbrella term “digital technology” within the in-house research of the digital technologies’ topic area of the BMDV Network of Experts is presented in the proem of this paper. Based on literature from futures and technology studies, this work presents a list of useful methods for the assessment of digital technologies. This list contains such traditional methods as the Delphi technique as well as emergent text mining technologies. Additional research revealed a taxonomy of digital technologies and a categorization of the interactions among digital technologies as useful additions to this list. Visualization methods such as technology radar are discussed for the dissemination of results. Concerning text mining and visualization technologies, the contracted research project “Technologiescouting” by German Centre for Rail Traffic Research is a brainchild of this work and introduced in this paper. “Technologiescouting” evaluates a prototype system, which embodies a bidirectional loop between a Wikipedia-like front-end and a text mining back-end. DISCLAIMER: THIS CONTRIBUTION REPRESENTS SOLELY THE AUTHORS’ PROFESSIONAL OPINION, NOT ONE OF THEIR EMPLOYERS. IT IS NOT AN OFFICIAL DIRECTIVE.

Keywords: technology assessment, horizon scanning, future-oriented technology analysis, futures studies, foresight, digitalization, public policy, departmental research, traffic authorities, emerging technologies

JEL Classification: O32