Ghostbusters: Hunting abnormal Flights in Europe during COVID-19

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in airline history, with irregular flight bans, the inability for accurate demand estimation, several turns in the epidemiological evolution, and a wide range of downstream effects on all aviation stakeholders. While most airlines have increasingly entered a recovery stage, compared to the utmost disruption around April 2020, the airline business is far from back-to-normality. Throughout the past two years, recurrent statements have been made regarding the existence of so-called ghost flights, where airlines operate nearly empty aircraft on markets with insufficient demand, partially with the aim to avoid losing precious airport slots. This study investigates the extent of such abnormal market service during the COVID-19 pandemic through an explorative, data-driven analysis, based on actual load factor data of European airlines for the years 2017 to 2021. We break down the observed deviations by airlines, markets, and airports. We find that low-cost carriers are most-likely to have performed abnormal flights during the pandemic; and that abnormal flights have mostly occurred on frequently-served markets. In addition, we show that airline responses, in terms of departure and yield changes, are largely heterogeneous across the 24 airlines in this study. Our study is the first one to shed light on the important issue of load factor deviations, and we hope that our findings can contribute to a better understanding of the existence of abnormal flights during the pandemic, as well as deriving appropriate policies for dealing with the ubiquitous threat and impact of ghost flights in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, ghost flights, Europe, load factor