To the Loser goes the Spoils?: Elections as Signals of Opposition Support

Abstract

Elections are assumed to provide legitimacy to illiberal regimes. Yet why would obviously unfree elections increase citizens’ perceptions of regime strength or legitimacy? Synthesizing prior arguments, we conclude that many authors assume that fraudulent elections can lead citizens to upwardly adjust their assessment of public regime support even when they suspect publicly documented election results to be inflated. We note that this hypothesis critically depends on citizens’ ability to independently evaluate public sentiment. Given considerably increased access to international news sources through the internet, manipulated elections may now rather spotlight illiberal actions by governments, possibly turning them into flashpoints for anti-regime sentiment. To assess whether elections still raise citizen perceptions of public support, we conduct a two-period cross-sectional survey of Nicaraguans prior to and following the country’s recent general election. We find evidence that the election results served to depress perceived public support for the ruling FSLN and bolster perceptions of opposition support - despite the FSLN officially receiving almost 65% of the vote. Our study suggests that the risks to incumbents in conducting elections in illiberal settings are understated and that changing information environments might be dramatically altering the signaling effects of elections. Further research in this area is needed.

Keywords: Elections, ICT, Technology, Autocracy, Democracy, Nicaragua