Detecting Anti-dumping Circumvention: A Network Approach

Abstract

Despite the increasing integration of the global economic system, anti-dumping measures are a common tool used by governments to protect their national economy.
In this paper, we propose a methodology to detect cases of anti-dumping circumvention through re-routing trade via a third country.
Based on the observed full network of trade flows, we propose a measure to proxy the evasion of an anti-dumping duty for a subset of trade flows directed to the European Union, and look for possible cases of circumvention of an active anti-dumping duty.
Using panel regression, we are able correctly classify 86% of the trade flows, on which an investigation of anti-dumping circumvention has been opened by the European authorities.

Keywords: anti-dumping, circumvention, networks, world trade

JEL Classification: C55, F14, Q37