How to Keep it Adequate: A Validation Protocol for Agent-Based Simulation

52 Pages Posted: 13 Jul 2022

See all articles by Christian Troost

Christian Troost

University of Hohenheim

Andrew Reid Bell

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Hedwig van Delden

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Robert Huber

ETH Zürich

Tatiana Filatova

Delft University of Technology

Quang Bao Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Melvin Lippe

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Leila Niamir

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

J. Gareth Polhill

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Zhanli Sun

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)

Thomas Berger

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract

Agent-based models are used in a huge diversity of contexts, which complicates the establishment of a shared understanding of model validity and adequate methods for model construction, inference and validation. Starting from the tenet that model validity can only be judged with respect to a well-defined purpose and context, we conceptualise validation as systematically substantiating the premises on which conclusions from simulation analysis for a specific context are built. We revisit the premises of empirical and structural validation and argue that validation should not be understood as an isolated step in the modelling process. Rather, sound conclusions from simulation analysis require context-adequate choices at all steps of simulation analysis. To facilitate communication, we develop a protocol of guiding questions to analyse the modelling context, choose appropriate methods at each step, document the premises involved in a specific simulation analysis, and demonstrate the adequacy of the model for its context.

Keywords: Model validity, model inference, Calibration, generalisation, regime shift, identifiability

Suggested Citation

Troost, Christian and Bell, Andrew Reid and van Delden, Hedwig and Huber, Robert and Filatova, Tatiana and Le, Quang Bao and Lippe, Melvin and Niamir, Leila and Polhill, J. Gareth and Sun, Zhanli and Berger, Thomas, How to Keep it Adequate: A Validation Protocol for Agent-Based Simulation. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4161475 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4161475

Christian Troost (Contact Author)

University of Hohenheim ( email )

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

Andrew Reid Bell

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Hedwig Van Delden

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Robert Huber

ETH Zürich ( email )

Rämistrasse 101
ZUE F7
Zürich, 8092
Switzerland

Tatiana Filatova

Delft University of Technology ( email )

Quang Bao Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Melvin Lippe

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Leila Niamir

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

J. Gareth Polhill

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Zhanli Sun

Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) ( email )

Theodor-Lieser-Str.2
Halle, 06120
Germany

Thomas Berger

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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