Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 2003-040/4
35 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2003
Date Written: June 2003
The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.
Keywords: ARIMA models, Intervention, Parole abolition, Regression models, Sentence reform, Structural time series models
JEL Classification: C22, K42, I38
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation