Potential Greenhouse Gas Reductions Beyond Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution to 2030: Preliminary Modelling Results

Environmental Defense Fund Economics Discussion Paper Series, EDF EDP 22-02, July 2022

145 Pages Posted: 11 Aug 2022

See all articles by Andrés Pica-Téllez

Andrés Pica-Téllez

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Álvaro Lorca

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Raúl Urtubia

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Luis Abdon Cifuentes

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

José Miguel Valdes

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Viviana Cerda-Gho

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Catalina Veloso

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Diego González

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Horacio Gilabert

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Francisco Meza

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Valentina Jara

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Catalina Marinkovic-De la Cruz

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Sebastián Vicuña

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Francisco Pinto

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Juan Pablo Montero

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Date Written: July 20, 2022

Abstract

The Climate Action Teams (CAT) initiative is a mechanism that supports international resource transfers for climate mitigation. CAT operates through government-to-government agreements based on verified mitigation outcomes beyond nationally determined contribution (NDC) commitments in one country (the host) in exchange for financial and technological support from one or more countries (the partners) that form part of the CAT. The mitigation outcomes are “credited” to the partner countries and can potentially contribute to their NDC commitments.

A prospective emissions open-access model was developed by a modeling team from the Global Change Center of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile to explore mitigation opportunities beyond Chile’s NDC. The results represent a first approximation of the mitigation potential and its costs, since the implementation of any of the actions presented may require a whole set of analyses to determine a more accurate estimate. Nevertheless, some of the results are of particular interest and the structure of the model can be used for some preliminary investigations. For example, in the Reference future scenario, 62 MtCO2e are estimated to be available beyond the budget commitment. Preliminary results from new runs based on different carbon prices suggest that 70% of the 62 MtCO2e could be obtained at a marginal cost of less than US$50/tCO2e. In addition, estimates of the capital cost required to achieve this 70% is about US$2.8 billion.

Keywords: Climate Action Teams, Open-Access Model, Mitigation, Chile’s NDC, Marginal Carbon Costs

JEL Classification: Q5, Q54

Suggested Citation

Pica-Téllez, Andrés and Lorca, Álvaro and Urtubia, Raúl and Cifuentes, Luis Abdon and Valdes, José Miguel and Cerda-Gho, Viviana and Veloso, Catalina and González, Diego and Gilabert, Horacio and Meza, Francisco and Jara, Valentina and Marinkovic-De la Cruz, Catalina and Vicuña, Sebastián and Pinto, Francisco and Montero, Juan Pablo, Potential Greenhouse Gas Reductions Beyond Chile's Nationally Determined Contribution to 2030: Preliminary Modelling Results (July 20, 2022). Environmental Defense Fund Economics Discussion Paper Series, EDF EDP 22-02, July 2022, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4168343 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4168343

Andrés Pica-Téllez

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Álvaro Lorca

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Raúl Urtubia

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Luis Abdon Cifuentes

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

José Miguel Valdes

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Viviana Cerda-Gho

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Catalina Veloso

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Diego González

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Horacio Gilabert

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Francisco Meza

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Valentina Jara

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Catalina Marinkovic-De la Cruz

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Sebastián Vicuña

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Francisco Pinto (Contact Author)

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

Juan Pablo Montero

Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile ( email )

Av Libertador General Bernardo O'Higgins 340
Santiago, Región Metropolitana 8331150
Chile

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