Catastrophic Uncertainty and Regulatory Impact Analysis

17 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2022

See all articles by Daniel A. Farber

Daniel A. Farber

University of California, Berkeley - School of Law

Date Written: July 22, 2022

Abstract

Cost-benefit analysis embodies techniques for the analysis of possible harmful outcomes when the probability of those outcomes can be quantified with reasonable confidence. But when those probabilities cannot be quantified (“deep uncertainty”), the analytic path is more difficult. Decision science does not yet provide consensus solutions to the analysis of uncertain catastrophic outcomes. But it has advanced beyond the vague guidance provided by OMB since 2003, which may not have been state-of-the-art even then. This paper surveys these developments and explains how they might best be incorporated into agency practice in considering possible catastrophic risks

Keywords: Uncertainty, Ambiguity Theory, Catastrophic Risks, Climate Change, Cost Benefits Analysis

Suggested Citation

Farber, Daniel A., Catastrophic Uncertainty and Regulatory Impact Analysis (July 22, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4170257 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4170257

Daniel A. Farber (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley - School of Law ( email )

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