Catastrophic Uncertainty and Regulatory Impact Analysis
17 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2022
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Catastrophic Uncertainty and Regulatory Impact Analysis
Catastrophic uncertainty and regulatory impact analysis
Date Written: July 22, 2022
Abstract
Cost-benefit analysis embodies techniques for the analysis of possible harmful outcomes when the probability of those outcomes can be quantified with reasonable confidence. But when those probabilities cannot be quantified (“deep uncertainty”), the analytic path is more difficult. Decision science does not yet provide consensus solutions to the analysis of uncertain catastrophic outcomes. But it has advanced beyond the vague guidance provided by OMB since 2003, which may not have been state-of-the-art even then. This paper surveys these developments and explains how they might best be incorporated into agency practice in considering possible catastrophic risks
Keywords: Uncertainty, Ambiguity Theory, Catastrophic Risks, Climate Change, Cost Benefits Analysis
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