Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does 'Irrationality' Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions

57 Pages Posted: 23 Jul 2003

See all articles by Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

Federal Reserve Board; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: June 2, 2003

Abstract

The paper discusses the current state of the behavioral finance literature. I argue that more direct evidence on investors' actions and expectations would make existing theories more convincing to outsiders and would help sort among behavioral theories for a given asset pricing phenomenon. Furthermore, evidence on the dependence of a given bias on investor wealth/sophistication would be useful for determining if the bias could be due to (fixed) information or transactions costs or is likely to require a behavioral explanation, and for determining which biases are likely to be most important for asset prices.

I analyze a novel data set on investor expectations and actions obtained from UBS PaineWebber/Gallup. The data suggest that, even for high wealth investors, expected returns were high at the peak of the market, many investors thought the market was overvalued but would not correct quickly, and investors' beliefs depend strongly on their own investment experience. I then review evidence on the dependence of a series of "irrational" investor behaviors on investor wealth and conclude that many such behaviors diminish substantially with wealth. As an example of the cost needed to explain a particular type of "irrational" behavior, I consider the cost needed to rationalize why many households do not invest in the stock market.

Keywords: Behavioral finance, expectations

JEL Classification: G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does 'Irrationality' Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions (June 2, 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=417421 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.417421

Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Board ( email )

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Washington, DC 20015
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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United States

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