Information Manipulation and Repression: A Theory and Evidence from the COVID Response in Russia

64 Pages Posted: 29 Jul 2022 Last revised: 19 Jul 2023

See all articles by Natalia Lamberova

Natalia Lamberova

University of Texas at Dallas

Konstantin Sonin

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy

Date Written: July 15, 2023

Abstract

Were COVID-19 and the associated restrictions used by authoritarian governments as tools for information manipulation and repression? Using data from 83 Russian regions and the two-way fixed-effects design, we show that information manipulation (the difference between excess mortality and reported COVID-19 deaths) and repressions (e.g., arrests for violating lockdown rules) were influenced by the strength of the local civil society and opposition. Repression complemented propaganda: more arrests increased the extent of information manipulation. This came at a price: misinformation reduced compliance. These findings provide new evidence that authoritarian regimes are ill-suited to deal with public health challenges.

Keywords: COVID-19, institutions, civil society, authoritarian control

JEL Classification: P16, D7, P4

Suggested Citation

Lamberova, Natalia and Sonin, Konstantin, Information Manipulation and Repression: A Theory and Evidence from the COVID Response in Russia (July 15, 2023). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2022-101, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4174501 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4174501

Natalia Lamberova

University of Texas at Dallas ( email )

Richardson, TX 75080
United States

Konstantin Sonin (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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