В мае 2022 г. продолжилось ужесточение монетарной политики в странах G20, прогнозы роста мировой экономики ухудшались (G20 Countries Tightened Their Monetary Policies in May 2022, Global Economic Outlook Revised Downward)

Russian Economic Developments. Moscow. 2022. Vol. 29. No. 7. Pp. 4-14

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See all articles by Urmat Dzhunkeev

Urmat Dzhunkeev

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Yury Perevyshin

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Department of Economics

Pavel Trunin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Maria Chembulatova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: July 5, 2022

Abstract

The UN and the European Commission have revised downward the global GDP growth estimate to 3.1%–3.2% in 2022, a decrease compared with the IMF outlook released in April (3.6%). The economic growth outlooks for China and the US in 2022 were lowered to 4.2%–4.6% and 2.4%–2.9%, respectively. At the same time, the rate of inflation keeps growing and the monetary authorities of all G20 developed countries which held meetings in May took a decision to tighten their monetary policies. The US Federal Reserve declared that they were going to reduce the balance by $47.5 bn a month starting from June. The central banks of India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa raised interest rates. At its extraordinary meeting in May, the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 3 p.p. to 11% on the back of ebbing of inflationary pressures because of sagging demand, appreciation of the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and a decline in inflation expectations.

ООН и Европейская комиссия ухудшили оценки роста мирового ВВП на 2022 г. до 3,1–3,2%, что ниже прогноза МВФ, опубликованного в апреле (3,6%). Снижены прогнозы темпов роста в 2022 г. экономик Китая до 4,2–4,6% и США до 2,4–2,9%. При этом продолжается ускорение инфляции, вследствие чего в мае монетарные власти всех развитых стран G20, проводивших заседания, приняли решения об ужесточении денежно-кредитной политики. ФРС заявила о начале сокращения баланса с 1 июня на 47,5 млрд долл. в месяц. О повышении ставок объявили центральные банки Индии, Бразилии, Мексики и ЮАР. Банк России на внеочередном заседании в мае снизил ключевую ставку на 3 п.п. – до 11% годовых вследствие ослабления инфляционного давления из-за сокращения спроса, укрепления обменного курса рубля и снижения инфляционных ожиданий.

Keywords: world economy, growth rates, forecast, monetary policy, UN, European commission, мировая экономика, темпы роста, прогноз, денежно-кредитная политика, ООН, Европейская комиссия

JEL Classification: C53, C54, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

Dzhunkeev, Urmat and Perevyshin, Yury and Trunin, Pavel and Chembulatova, Maria, В мае 2022 г. продолжилось ужесточение монетарной политики в странах G20, прогнозы роста мировой экономики ухудшались (G20 Countries Tightened Their Monetary Policies in May 2022, Global Economic Outlook Revised Downward) (July 5, 2022). Russian Economic Developments. Moscow. 2022. Vol. 29. No. 7. Pp. 4-14, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=

Urmat Dzhunkeev

Lomonosov Moscow State University ( email )

GSP-2, Leninskie Gory
Moscow, 119992
Russia

Yury Perevyshin

Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA) - Department of Economics ( email )

Russia

Pavel Trunin (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Maria Chembulatova

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny Lane 3-5
Profsouyznaya street
Moscow, Moscow 117485
Russia

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