Brazil's Offshore Wind Cost Potential and Supply Curve

Abstract

In face of the growing interest in offshore wind in Brazil, the objective of this paper is to assess the Brazilian offshore wind cost potential. A methodological approach is proposed, which combines a spatial suitability analysis with a cost estimation model, building on existing research. First, the available area for development is mapped through the application of spatial constraints. Then, the resulting areas are classified in terms of their Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), generating a cost potential map and a cost-supply curve. Results show an available potential concentrated in three hotspots along the Northeast, Southeast, and South coasts, reaching 875.7 GW of installable capacity, an annual yield of 489.3 TWh and with capacity factors ranging from 32% to 65%. From total installable capacity, 294.7 GW require fixed-bottom foundations, while 581.0 GW use floating technology. Estimated LCOE range from 86.5 to 243.4 USD/MWh, with an average of 136.3 USD/MWh. The proposed cost estimation model proved to be an accurate tool and the methodological framework is replicable and adjustable to future cost reductions. Moreover, this paper shows that Brazil is a promising market for offshore wind energy, with a large untapped potential that could be deployed at internationally competitive costs.

Keywords: Offshore Wind Energy, Cost potential, LCOE, Cost-supply curve, Spatial suitability analysis