Enhancing Station-Level Direct-Demand Models with Multi-Scalar Accessibility Indicators

31 Pages Posted: 6 Sep 2022

Abstract

Direct-demand models (DDM) are increasingly being used for a diversity of transit research and practice purposes. Yet few station-level DDM studies have explored the use of composite indicators of metropolitan accessibility in predicting demand. After all, provision of access to metropolitan destinations is one of the main goals of rapid-transit systems. Furthermore, to this author’s knowledge no study has explored potential interactions with local-level accessibility indicators that are typically included in station-level transit DDMs. This study explores these possibilities and uses Los Angeles multi-modal rapid-transit network as a representative case study of a system that operates in a polycentric, or as some urban geographers would argue, dispersed agglomeration where multiple sub-centers are linked. Multi-level generalized linear models were implemented where key predictors, including a station metropolitan-accessibility indicator and a local-accessibility indicator are regressed onto average weekday boardings. Furthermore, more general accessibility constructs were developed via Exploratory Factor Analysis and implemented in models; and parameters non-stationarity was assessed via geographically weighted regressions. Results indicate that a station’s nodal metropolitan-accessibility is a significant predictor of patronage in LA’s rapid-transit network, and that its interaction with local-accessibility amplifies boardings and improves DDM models’ explanatory power. More general constructs of access at metropolitan- and local-level, derived via Exploratory Factor Analysis result in a more parsimonious model with equal predictive power, and register spatial non-stationarity. Land-use and transit analysts, TOD planners and policy analysts would benefit from including an accessibility lens via multi-scalar composite indicators and relevant interactions in their DDM modeling. Practical applications of these type of models include TOD scenario planning, comparative route alignment studies, system expansion studies, and for didactic purposes given the ability of accessibility measures to capture land-use/transportation interactions.

Keywords: direct-demand, accessibility, rapid-transit, boardings, station, multi-scalar

Suggested Citation

Ramos-Santiago, Luis Enrique, Enhancing Station-Level Direct-Demand Models with Multi-Scalar Accessibility Indicators. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4184594 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4184594

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